Association of longitudinal trajectories of fasting plasma glucose with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among a Chinese older population: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Abstract The association between fasting plasma glucose (FPG), an important indicator of overall glycemic status, and the risk of cardiovascular mortality has been well investigated. The longitudinal study can repeatedly collect measured results for the variables to be studied and then consider the potential effects of intraindividual changes in measurement. This study aimed to identify long-term FPG trajectories and investigate the association between trajectory groups and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. A latent class growth mixture modeling (LCGMM) was used to identify FPG trajectories. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate associations between FPG trajectories and the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. A U-shaped relationship between FPG and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was observed in the restricted cubic spline regression models. Two FPG longitudinal trajectories of low-level (mean FPG = 5.12mmol/L) and high-level (mean FPG = 6.74mmol/L) were identified by LCGMM. After being adjusted for potential confounders, compared with the low-level category, the hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were 1.23(1.16–1.30) and 1.25(1.16–1.35), respectively, for the high-level group. Long-term FPG trajectories are significantly associated with and potentially impact the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

Keywords

• Cardiovascular risk
• Fasting plasma glucose
• Trajectories