FORECASTING PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF RICE AND INFLUENCE OF DETERMINANTS TO INCREASE FOOD SECURITY IN THE SOUTH SUMATRA REGION, INDONESIA

Abstract

The objectives of this study are (1) to analyze the rate of development of rice production and consumption in South Sumatra, (2) to analyze the factors that affect rice production and consumption in South Sumatra, including seeing the impact of a government policy or program (“Upsus” and Price Highest Retailing/ HET Rice) and climate change, and (3) analyzing forecasts of the amount of rice production and consumption in the next ten years and what the implications are for sustainable food security at the regional level in South Sumatra. The research method used is historical empirical research method. The data used are time series data for 33 years from 1987 to 2019. Analysis of the data used for the first purpose, namely analyzing the development of rice production and consumption in South Sumatra, is a descriptive analysis method with tabulation. Meanwhile, the second objective, namely regarding the factors affecting rice production and consumption in South Sumatra, was analyzed using multiple linear regression. Furthermore, to answer the third objective, which is to project rice production and consumption in South Sumatra in the next ten years, Holt's multiple exponential smoothing method is used. The result of this research shows that the development of rice production in South Sumatra Province in 1987-2019 tends to increase, with an average increase of 3.26 percent per year. Meanwhile, the development of rice consumption in South Sumatra Province from 1987-2019 also tended to increase, with an average increase of 0.54 percent. The determinants or factors that have a significant positive effect on rice production in South Sumatra Province are the harvested area, the price of unhulled rice and the policy dummy for the Special Efforts for Self-Sufficiency Program for rice. The determinant or factor that has a significant positive effect on rice consumption in South Sumatra Province is the population. Meanwhile, the determinants or factors that have a significant negative effect are the price of rice and the dummy of the highest retail price (“Harga Eceran Tertinggi”, HET) policy of rice. Based on the forecast results, during the next ten years, rice production and consumption in South Sumatra Province tends to increase but with different average growth. The average growth of rice production in South Sumatra Province is 1.67 percent per year, while the average rice consumption in South Sumatra Province is 0.88 percent. This condition will increase the production surplus for the next ten years, which means that South Sumatra Province can continue to improve regional food security and increase its contribution to national food availability. The average growth of rice production in South Sumatra Province is 1.67 percent per year, while the average rice consumption in South Sumatra Province is 0.88 percent. This condition will increase the production surplus for the next ten years, which means that South Sumatra Province can continue to improve regional food security and increase its contribution to national food availability. The average growth of rice production in South Sumatra Province is 1.67 percent per year, while the average rice consumption in South Sumatra Province is 0.88 percent. This condition will increase the production surplus for the next ten years, which means that South Sumatra Province can continue to improve regional food security and increase its contribution to national food availability.

Keywords

• forecasting
• production
• consumption
• food security
• exponential smoothing