Cancer of the digestive system in Veracruz. The magnitude of the problem by 2025

Abstract

Introduction: Malignant tumors of the digestive system are a public health problem with epidemiologic variations attributed to factors resulting from the aging of the population and lifestyle changes. Therefore, estimating the future magnitude of the problem is prudent. Aim: To determine the epidemiologic projection up to 2025 of malignant tumors of the digestive system in Veracruz. Materials and methods: A predictive, analytic, observational study was conducted on patients belonging to the Public health sector of Veracruz that presented with digestive system cancer, within the time frame of 2000-2016, carrying out a disease projection up to 2025. The IBM SPSS 22.0 program was utilized for the statistical analysis, employing simple linear regression. A comparative analysis of the data was carried out and results are shown in scatter graphs. Results: A total of 2,540 cases were included in the study. Mean patient age was 63.25 ± 13.43, with a predominance of men at 56.65%. The most frequent tumor locations were in the colon and rectum (25.04%), liver (23.66%), and stomach (21.93%). Less frequent sites were the esophagus (4.88%) and small bowel (5.08%). A general 7.63% increase in the disease was predicted for 2025, with increases to 11.51% for esophageal cancer, 7.22% for gastric cancer, 9.09% for colorectal cancer, 5.98% for liver cancer, 7.88% for pancreatic cancer, and 6.46% for cancer of the gallbladder and bile ducts. Only cancer of the small bowel showed a predicted decrease to 3.33%. Discussion and conclusions: The results of the present study predict that digestive system cancers in Veracruz will increase importantly by 2025, with colorectal cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, and gastric cancer as the most frequent tumors, in descending order. The other cancers are estimated to maintain a discrete line of growth. In addition to predicting the behavior of those cancers, the results of the present study are useful for estimating the resources that will be needed for their care by 2025. Resumen: Introducción y objetivo: Las neoplasias malignas del aparato digestivo representan un problema de salud pública con variaciones epidemiológicas atribuidas a factores resultantes del envejecimiento poblacional y cambios del estilo de vida por lo que es conveniente estimar la magnitud del problema a futuro. Objetivo: Determinar la proyección epidemiológica a 2025 de las neoplasias malignas de aparato digestivo en Veracruz. Material y métodos: Estudio predictivo, analítico, observacional de pacientes con cáncer de aparato digestivo del Sector Salud de Veracruz durante 2000-2016 y su proyección al 2025. Análisis estadístico: Se utilizó el programa IBM SPSS 22.0, regresión lineal simple. Los datos se analizaron de forma comparativa y representados mediante gráficos de dispersión. Resultados: Se incluyeron 2,540 casos, con promedio de edad 66.93 ± 14.94, predominando el género masculino 56.65%, la localización más frecuente fue colorrectal 25.04%, hígado 23.66% y gástrico 21.93%; siendo los de menor frecuencia esofágico (4.88%) y de intestino delgado 85.07%. Para 2025 se aprecia un incremento de 7.63% en general, el cáncer de esófago de 11.51%, estómago 7.22%, colorrectal 9.09%, hígado 5.98%, páncreas 7.88% y vesícula y vías biliares 6.46%, solamente el cáncer de intestino delgado mostró decremento de 3.32%. Discusión y conclusiones: Las neoplasias del aparato digestivo en Veracruz sufrirán un incremento importante para el 2025 siendo los más frecuentes el colorrectal y el carcinoma hepatocelular con descenso a tercer lugar del gástrico, el resto mantendrá una línea de crecimiento discreta. Los resultados además de predecir su comportamiento son de utilidad para estimar los recursos necesarios para su atención en el 2025.

Keywords

• Neoplasias malignas
• Aparato digestivo
• Frecuencia
• Predicción