Optimized EBMT transplant-specific risk score in myelodysplastic syndromes after allogeneic stem-cell transplantation

Abstract

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a clinical and transplant-specific prognostic score using data from a large cohort of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes reported to the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation registry. A Cox model was fitted to detect clinical and transplant-related variables prognostic of outcome. Then, cross-validation was performed to evaluate the validity and consistency of the model. Seven independent risk factors for survival were identified: age ≥50 years, matched unrelated donor, Karnofsky Performance Status 1%, and platelet count ≤50 × 109/L prior to transplantation. Incorporating these factors into a four-level risk score yielded hazard ratios for death, with low-risk (score of 0-1) as reference, of 2.02 (95% CI: 1.41-2.90) for the intermediate-risk group (score of 2-3), 3.49 (95% CI: 2.45-4.97) for the high-risk group (score of 4-5), and 5.90 (95% CI: 4.01-8.67) for the very high-risk group (score of >5). The score was predictive of survival, relapse-free survival, relapse, and non-relapse mortality (P