SUITABILITY AREAS FOR Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus UNDER DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN MEXICO

Abstract

Background. Climate change models have projected an increase in the distribution of certain crop pests of economic importance by forecasting more favorable future conditions for these organisms. In citrus farming, Huanglongbing is one of the most devastating diseases worldwide, since it has caused the death of millions of trees. Objetive. The objective of this study was to estimate the current and future distribution of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus in Mexico, under the climate change scenarios SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5, for the years 2050 and 2070. Methodology. Distribution models were generated with MaxEnt and R, using uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from eight General Circulation Models (GCM) derived from CMIP6 and disease presence data. Results. The results indicate that the current suitability is 44.6 %. The future distribution depended on how model predictions were pooled. An optimistic approach that considered the intersection of all models showed a small reduction of 4.1% while, considering the union of all the GCM models, the increase will vary from 12.3 to 20.1 % of the Mexican territory depending on the particular scenario and time projection. Implications. The zones of potential occurrence of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus include most of the citrus-growing areas in Mexico. Conclusion. In some regions, future scenarios show a reduction in the potential occurrence of the species in citrus plantations. However, the risk remains because its surroundings include suitable areas that can be sources of dissemination of the disease.

Keywords

• bioclimatic variables
• citrus
• huanglongbing
• potential distribution
• species distribution modeling.