Different paths, same outcome: The electoral success of populist parties in Western Europe. An analysis proposal

Abstract

The aim of this article is to analyse the electoral settings favorable to the populist parties in Western Europe after the economic crisis. To this end, a comparative process tracing has been applied to a selection of cases (Spain 2011-‍15, United Kingdom 2010-‍15 and Sweden 2010-‍14) after a fuzzy Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to 26 general elections held in Western Europe between 2010 and 2015. The results suggest that the electoral success achieved by these parties cannot be explained by a single causal condition, but different paths can lead to the same phenomenon: on the one hand, a very favorable demand (high levels of dissatisfaction and political mistrust) can be sufficient to explain the electoral success of these parties, even when competing within an unfavorable political and institutional context; on the other hand, certain party competition patterns (coalitions and convergence in proportional electoral systems) can be sufficient, even if demand is unfavorable. Finally, this analytical proposal can be extended to the study of other types of political organisations, such as the so-called anti-immigrant parties.

Keywords

• populismo, anti-establishment, partidos políticos, rastreo sistemático comparado, QCA.