Novel sampling strategy for regular nucleic acid testing in low risk areas during epidemics

Abstract

Abstract Large-scale regular nucleic acid testing (NAT) such as Regular-1/7, played a crucial role in the successful and sustained containment of COVID-19 in China, enabling rapid case detection in low-risk areas. However, Regular-1/7 strategies are extremely costly and time-consuming. To address these challenges and facilitate the broader implementation of large-scale NAT during outbreaks of highly contagious diseases with long incubation periods, we propose a novel sampling strategy called Weighted Hub and Time Sampling (WHTS). This strategy considers the intensity of social activity, the degree of social overlap, and the time interval since the last NAT for each individual. Based on a scale-free contact network model, we simulated the spread of scenario in a community and compared the performance of the WHTS strategy to the Regular-1/7 strategy in terms of cost reduction and shorter alert time. The results show that WHTS-1/14 strategy can save half of the cost, and WHTS-1/7 strategy can alert 1.0 days in advance, compared to Regular-1/7 strategy. Additionally, The WHTS-1/14 strategy also achieves promising results under various scenarios, even though it samples half as many people as the Regular-1/7 strategy. Our study offers a valuable reference for large-scale testing in future efforts to manage emerging infectious diseases.

Keywords

• Regular nucleic acid-testing
• Weighted hub and time sampling
• Epidemic prevention and control
• Contact network model
• Algorithm
• Public health