Shadow tax evasion and its impact on the competitiveness of the country’s tax system

Abstract

Tax competitiveness of the country characterizes the ability of the tax system to obtain permanent competitive advantages in attracting external and mobilizing internal financial resources due to the establishment of the optimal level of tax burden and differentiation of fiscal instruments. The complexity of this indicator determines the presence of a number of drivers of its formation. Shadow tax evasion is one of them. The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of the shadow tax evasion of taxpayers on the level of competitiveness of the tax system on the example of 11 European countries from 2011 to 2021. The methodological tools are regression analysis methods, Shapiro-Wilk tests, and Spearman’s rank correlation. It was determined that informal employment, informal production, and unregistered or informal entrepreneurship are the most common methods of tax evasion. Based on the results of the calculations, regression equations of the influence of shadow tax evasion on the level of competitiveness of the country’s tax system were constructed. It has been proven that shadow tax evasion exerts the greatest influence on the level of tax competitiveness of Slovenia (0.32), Romania (0.34), and Croatia (0.26). The least sensitive to shadow tax evasion is the competitiveness of the Czech Republic’s tax system (0.096). For most analyzed countries, this influence is carried out with a time lag of 2 years. Only in Croatia, this influence is the most substantial with a one-year lag. AcknowledgmentThe study is funded by the EU NextGenerationEU through the Recovery and Resilience Plan for Slovakia under the project No. 09I03-03-V01-00042.The authors are grateful to the participants of projects “National security of Ukraine through the prevention of financial fraud and money laundering: war and post-war challenges” (2023–2025, state registration number: 0123U101945) and “De-shadowing and regulatory efficiency of environmental taxation: optimization modelling to ensure national security and rational use of nature” (2022–2024, registration number 0122U000777) for numerous discussions and comments.

Keywords

• budget revenues
• macro-financial stability
• shadow economy
• tax competitiveness
• tax evasion