Development of the “POP” scoring system for predicting obstetric and gynecological diseases in the emergency department: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Background Obstetric and gynecological (OBGY) diseases are among the most important differential diagnoses for young women with acute abdominal pain. However, there are few established clinical prediction rules for screening OBGY diseases in emergency departments (EDs). This study aimed to develop a prediction model for diagnosing OBGY diseases in the ED. Methods This single-center retrospective cohort study included female patients with acute abdominal pain who presented to our ED. We developed a logistic regression model for predicting OBGY diseases and assessed its diagnostic ability. This study included young female patients aged between 16 and 49 years who had abdominal pain and were examined at the ED between April 2017 and March 2018. Trauma patients and patients who were referred from other hospitals or from the OBGY department of our hospital were excluded. Results Out of 27,991 patients, 740 were included. Sixty-five patients were diagnosed with OBGY diseases (8.8%). The “POP” scoring system (past history of OBGY diseases + 1, no other symptoms + 1, and peritoneal irritation signs + 1) was developed. Cut-off values set between 0 and 1 points, sensitivity at 0.97, specificity at 0.39, and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.1 (95% CI: 0.02–0.31) were considered to rule-out, while cut-off values set between 2 and 3 points, sensitivity at 0.23 (95% CI 0.13–0.33), specificity at 0.99 (95% CI 0.98–1.00), and positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 17.30 (95% CI: 7.88–37.99) were considered to rule-in. Conclusions Our “POP” scoring system may be useful for screening OBGY diseases in the ED. Further research is necessary to assess the predictive performance and external validity of different data sets.

Keywords

• Abdominal pain
• Emergency medicine
• Prediction model
• Gynecologic emergencies
• Screening