Non-Stationary Precipitation Frequency Estimates for Resilient Infrastructure Design in a Changing Climate: A Case Study in Sydney

Abstract

The intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curve is a commonly utilized tool for estimating extreme rainfall events that are used for many purposes including flood analysis. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense under the changing climate, and there is a need to account for non-stationarity IDF curves to mitigate an underestimation of the risks associated with extreme rainfall events. Sydney, Australia, has recently started experiencing flooding under climate change and more intense rainfall events. This study evaluated the impact of climate change on altering the precipitation frequency estimates (PFs) used in generating IDF curves at Sydney Airport. Seven general circulation models (GCMs) were obtained, and the best models in terms of providing the extreme series were selected. The ensemble of the best models was used for comparing the projected 24 h PFs in 2031–2060 with historical values provided by Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR). The historical PFs consistently underestimate the projected 24 h PFs for all return periods. The projected 24 h 100 yr rainfall events are increased by 9% to 41% for the least and worst-case scenario compared to ARR historical PFs. These findings highlight the need for incorporating the impact of climate change on PFs and IDF curves in Sydney toward building a more prepared and resilient community. The findings of this study can also aid other communities in adapting the same framework for developing more robust and adaptive approaches to reducing extreme rainfall events’ repercussions under changing climates.

Keywords

• climate change
• general circulation models (GCMs)
• intensity–duration–frequency (IDF)
• non-stationarity
• precipitation frequency estimates (PFs)
• Sydney