International Journal of General Medicine (Nov 2021)
Prognostic Nomogram for Overall Survival of Patients Aged 50 Years or Older with Cervical Cancer
Abstract
Jing Yan,1,2 Yue He,1 Ming Wang,1 Yumei Wu1 1Department of Gynecological Oncology, Beijing Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital, Capital Medical University; Beijing Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Gynecology, Fuxing Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Yumei WuDepartment of Gynecological Oncology, Beijing Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital, Capital Medical University; Beijing Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, Dongcheng District, Qi-He-Lou Street No. 17, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaEmail [email protected]: The prognostic factors of cervical cancer in elderly patients have not been researched systematically. We aimed to investigate the clinicopathological characteristics of patients with cervical cancer aged ≥ 50 years and establish a nomogram for evaluating their prognoses for overall survival.Methods: From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, we obtained data of 8538 patients with pathology-confirmed cervical cancer between 2004 and 2015. Patients were divided into training (n = 5941) and validation (n = 2597) cohorts. A nomogram was constructed to evaluate the prognostic prediction value for disease progression. The concordance index, receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration chart were used to evaluate the model’s prediction accuracy and discriminative ability. Survival condition was analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method.Results: In the training cohort, age at diagnosis, race, histology, grade, stage, tumor size, number of examined lymph nodes, and treatment significantly correlated with outcome and were used to develop the nomogram. The calibration curve for survival probability showed an excellent agreement between the nomogram-predicted and actual survival in the training cohort.Conclusion: Our nomogram has less bias and gives better accuracy than the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics staging system and can help set up a more individualized feasible follow-up plan.Keywords: prognosis, nomogram, cervical cancer, Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results, SEER
