Estimating the COVID-19 Prevalence in Spain With Indirect Reporting via Open Surveys

Augusto Garcia-Agundez; Oluwasegun Ojo; Harold A. Hernández-Roig; Carlos Baquero; Davide Frey; Chryssis Georgiou; Mathieu Goessens; Rosa E. Lillo; Raquel Menezes; Nicolas Nicolaou; Antonio Ortega; Efstathios Stavrakis; Antonio Fernandez Anta

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2021.658544

Frontiers in Public Health (Apr 2021)

Estimating the COVID-19 Prevalence in Spain With Indirect Reporting via Open Surveys

Augusto Garcia-Agundez,
Oluwasegun Ojo,
Harold A. Hernández-Roig,
Carlos Baquero,
Davide Frey,
Chryssis Georgiou,
Mathieu Goessens,
Rosa E. Lillo,
Raquel Menezes,
Nicolas Nicolaou,
Antonio Ortega,
Efstathios Stavrakis,
Antonio Fernandez Anta

Affiliations

Augusto Garcia-Agundez: Multimedia Communications Lab, etit, Technische Universität Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
Oluwasegun Ojo: IMDEA Networks Institute, Madrid, Spain
Harold A. Hernández-Roig: Department of Statistics, University Carlos III de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Carlos Baquero: Departamento de Informática, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal
Davide Frey: University of Rennes, Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut de Recherche en Informatique et Systèmes Aléatoires, Rennes, France
Chryssis Georgiou: Department of Computer Science, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus
Mathieu Goessens: Independent Researcher, Nantes, France
Rosa E. Lillo: University Carlos III de Madrid - Santander Big Data Institute, Madrid, Spain
Raquel Menezes: Departamento de Matemática, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal
Nicolas Nicolaou: 0Algolysis Ltd, Limassol, Cyprus
Antonio Ortega: 1Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, USC Viterbi School of Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Efstathios Stavrakis: 0Algolysis Ltd, Limassol, Cyprus
Antonio Fernandez Anta: IMDEA Networks Institute, Madrid, Spain

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.658544
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 9

Abstract

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During the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, accurate tracking has proven unfeasible. Initial estimation methods pointed toward case numbers that were much higher than officially reported. In the CoronaSurveys project, we have been addressing this issue using open online surveys with indirect reporting. We compare our estimates with the results of a serology study for Spain, obtaining high correlations (R squared 0.89). In our view, these results strongly support the idea of using open surveys with indirect reporting as a method to broadly sense the progress of a pandemic.

Published in Frontiers in Public Health

ISSN: 2296-2565 (Online)
Publisher: Frontiers Media S.A.
Country of publisher: Switzerland
LCC subjects: Medicine: Public aspects of medicine
Website: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health

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