The VaR comparison of the fresh investment tool-BITCOIN with other conventional investment tools, gold, stock exchange (BIST100) and foreign currencies (EUR/USD vs TRL)

Abstract

In the finance sector, in general, a single VaR method is used for one single portfolio or for all similar portfolios and it hampers the opportunity for comparison. Such shortcoming deriving from trusting one single VaR method results in very incoherent results for the analysis as well as in untrustable transactions based upon those risk estimations. In order to overcome that, similar investments tools/portfolios should be analysed simultaneously by different VaR methods for comparison. Considering such overcome, this study is aimed to compare the VaR (value at risk) estimation methodologies for all 5 separated portfolios (which are similar considering their liquidity and investment process) holding USD, EUR, GOLD, BIST100 Index (Istanbul Stock Exchange Index) and BITCOIN considering their daily return on TRL (Turkish Lira). For performance measurement of different methodologies listed namely as extreme value VaR (GRPD-gnadenko theorem), ewma based volatility filtered historical simulation, historical simulation, delta normal, and bootstrapping; the 3 backtesting procedures and the related statistics are used.

Keywords

• historical var
• delta normal var
• evt
• var backtesting
• bitcoin