Detecting coordinated and bot-like behavior in Twitter: the Jürgen Conings case

Abstract

Abstract Social media platforms can play a pivotal role in shaping public opinion during times of crisis and controversy. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a large amount of dubious information being shared online. In Belgium, a crisis emerged during the pandemic when a soldier (Jürgen Conings) went missing with stolen weaponry after threatening politicians and virologists. This case created further division and polarization in online discussions. In this paper, we develop a methodology to study the potential of coordinated spread of incorrect information online. We combine network science and content analysis to infer and study the social network of users discussing the case, the news websites shared by those users, and their narratives. Additionally, we examined indications of bots or coordinated behavior among the users. Our findings reveal the presence of distinct communities within the discourse. Major news outlets, conspiracy theory websites, and anti-vax platforms were identified as the primary sources of (dis)information sharing. We also detected potential coordinated behavior and bot activity, indicating possible attempts to manipulate the discourse. We used the rapid semantic similarity network for the analysis of text, but our approach can be extended to the analysis of images, videos, and other types of content. These results provide insights into the role of social media in shaping public opinion during times of crisis and underscore the need for improved strategies to detect and mitigate disinformation campaigns and online discourse manipulation. Our research can aid intelligence community members in identifying and disrupting networks that spread extremist ideologies and false information, thereby promoting a more informed and resilient society.

Keywords

• Social network analysis
• Polarization
• Coordinated behavior