Fractional modeling of COVID-19 epidemic model with harmonic mean type incidence rate

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2). It was declared on March 11, 2020, by the World Health Organization as a pandemic disease. Regrettably, the spread of the virus and mortality due to COVID-19 have continued to increase daily. The study is performed using the Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo operator with a harmonic mean type incidence rate. The existence and uniqueness of the solutions of the fractional COVID-19 epidemic model have been developed using the fixed point theory approach. Along with stability analysis, all the basic properties of the given model are studied. To highlight the most sensitive parameter corresponding to the basic reproductive number, sensitivity analysis is taken into account. Simulations are conducted using the first-order convergent numerical approach to determine how parameter changes influence the system’s dynamic behavior.

Keywords

• epidemic model
• stability analysis
• numerical simulations
• sensitivity analysis
• covid-19