Bìznes Inform (Dec 2017)
The Methods of Investment Risk Assessment in Business Planning
Abstract
The article is aimed at studying the existing methods of assessing investment risks in relation to business planning. The essence of the concept of «investment risk» is considered, a classification of investment risks is provided. It is determined that investment risks can be analyzed using qualitative and quantitative methods that complement each other. The necessity, while assessing an investment risk, to consider only the scenarios of decrease in profitability of the investment project in comparison with the expected value on the basis of calculation of seven standard deviation has been substantiated. While calculating seven standard deviation, it is suggested to use not the modan or median value of the considered range of profitability for the whole aggregate of scenarios, but the average market profitability. Further research should be directed to the development of such methods of investment risk assessment, which would allow to combine quantitative and qualitative methods of assessment and management of investment risks in the process of business planning in conditions of uncertainty.
