The Comprehensive Scenario Planning Model with a Forecasting Approach

Abstract

Scenario planning is a tool for dealing with environmental uncertainty. Since the 1950s, several scientific methods have been proposed for various categories, such as pastcasting, forecasting and backcasting, qualitative and quantitative, deductive and inductive, non- participatory and participatory, exploratory and normative, etc. The variety and Multiplicity of methods has made the users practically confused in choosing the right method and implementing it. The researcher, considering the first category, has tried with the scientific gurus in 10 methods as the target of the research due to the prevalence of forecasting scenario planning models in this category and the lack of a study to provide a comprehensive model in this regard. The importance of this research is to increase the ease of understanding and implementation of the steps, increase the quality and reliability of the results, and reduce the concern of experts to select the appropriate scenario planning scenario. Failure to do so will increase the user's mistakes in choosing the right model and over-simplifying or Prolongation the planning of scenario planning projects. The methodology of research is based on the structural paradigm, developmental orientation, qualitative type and its method, descriptive and case research that were carried out using the meta synthesis method. To test the model, a number of experts were selected by non-random sampling method, and by using the Delphi tool, interviews continued until theoretical saturation. The final model of the research was presented in the form of two general phases, four main stages and fourteen sub steps.

Keywords

• scenario planning
• forecasting approach
• meta synthesis method
• comprehensive scenario planning model