Atmosphere (Mar 2021)
Trends in Different Grades of Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin from 1960 to 2017
Abstract
Under the background of global warming, the trends and variabilities of different grades of precipitation have significant effects on the management of regional ecosystems and water resources. Based on a daily precipitation dataset collected from 148 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin from 1960 to 2017, precipitation events were divided into four grades (small, moderate, large, and heavy precipitation events) according to the precipitation intensity to analyze the temporal and spatial change trends of different grades of precipitation amounts and frequencies, and the influence of different grades of precipitation on total precipitation was also discussed in this study. The results revealed that small precipitation amounts over the Yangtze River Basin decreased significantly, with a rate of −1.22%/10a, while heavy precipitation amounts showed a significant increasing trend (4.27%/10a) during the study period. The precipitation frequency of small and total events decreased significantly, with rates of −3.86%/10a and −2.97%/10a, respectively. Regionally, from the upper reaches to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, the contribution rate of small precipitation amounts and frequencies to the total precipitation gradually decreased, while heavy precipitation amounts and frequencies increased. The different grades of precipitation in region II showed a decreasing trend due to its unique geographical features. Furthermore, a Pearson correlation analysis was used to analyze the response of precipitation to long-term air temperature, demonstrating that small and moderate precipitation amounts and frequencies were mainly negatively correlated with long-term air temperature and that heavy precipitation amounts showed a stronger positive correlation with long-term air temperature (13.35%/K). Based on this, the rate of change in heavy precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin may be higher under the background of climate warming, which will lead to greater risks of extreme floods in the future. Evaluating and predicting the trends of different grades can provide a theoretical reference for agricultural production, flood control, and drought mitigation.
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