Economic policy uncertainty and the predictability of stock returns: impact of China in Asia

Abstract

Motivated by the significant role of uncertainty in affecting investment decisions and China's economic leadership in Asia, this paper investigates the predictive role of exposure to Chinese economic policy uncertainty at the individual stock level in large Asian markets. We estimate the monthly uncertainty exposure (beta) for each stock and then employ the portfolio-level sorting analysis to investigate the relationship between the China’s uncertainty exposure and the future returns of major Asian markets over multiple trading horizons. The raw returns of the high-minus-low portfolios are then adjusted using conventional asset pricing models to investigate whether the relationship is explained by common risk factors. Finally, we check the robustness of the portfolio-level results through firm-level Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions. Applying portfolio-level sorting analysis, we reveal that exposure to Chinese uncertainty is negatively related to the future returns of large stocks over multiple trading horizons in Japan, Hong Kong and India. We discover this is unexplained by common risk factors, including market, size, value, profitability, investment and momentum, and is robust to the specification of stock-level Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions. Our analysis demonstrates the spillover effects of Chinese economic policy uncertainty across the region, provides evidence of China's emerging economic leadership, and offers trading strategies for managing uncertainty risks. The findings of the study significantly improve our understanding of stock return predictability in Asian markets. Unlike previous studies, our results challenge the leading role of the US by providing a new intra-regional return predictor, namely, China’s uncertainty exposure. These results also evidence the continuing integration of the Asian economy and financial markets. However, contrary findings for some Asian markets point toward certain market-specific features. Compared with market-level research, our analysis provides deeper insights into the performance of individual stocks and is of particular importance to investors and other market participants.

Keywords

• economic policy uncertainty
• stock returns
• market anomalies
• china