Early Season Forecasting of Corn Yield at Field Level from Multi-Source Satellite Time Series Data

Abstract

Crop yield forecasting during an ongoing season is crucial to ensure food security and commodity markets. For this reason, here, a scalable approach to forecast corn yields at the field-level using machine learning and satellite imagery from Sentinel-2 and Landsat missions is proposed. The model, evaluated on 1319 corn fields in the U.S. Corn Belt from 2017 to 2022, integrates biophysical parameters from Sentinel-2, Land Surface Temperature (LST) from Landsat, and agroclimatic data from ERA5 reanalysis dataset. Resampling the time series over thermal time significantly enhances predictive performance. The addition of LST to our model further improves in-season yield forecasting, through its capacity to detect early drought, which is not immediately visible to optical sensors such as the Sentinel-2. Finally, we propose a new two-stage machine learning strategy to mitigate early season partially available data. It consists in extending the current time series on the basis of complete historical data and adapting the model inference according to the crop progress.

Keywords

• yield forecasting
• machine learning
• thermal time
• Sentinel-2
• land surface temperature
• early season forecasting