Propagation Laws of Reclamation Risk in Tailings Ponds Using Complex Network Theory

Abstract

Accidents have occurred periodically in the tailings ponds where mine solid waste is stored in recent years, and thus their safety has become one of the constraints restricting the sustainable development of the mining industry. Reclamation is an important way to treat tailings ponds, but improper reclamation methods and measures not only cannot reduce the accident risk of tailings ponds, but will further increase the pollution to the surrounding environment. The influencing factors of reclamation accidents in tailings ponds are complex, and the existing models cannot characterize them. In order to study the propagation process of tailings pond reclamation risk, this paper proposes a three-dimensional identification framework for accident hazards based on evidence (TDIFAHE) to identify all potential hazards that may occur during the reclamation stage, and obtain a list of hazards. Based on the complex network theory, this paper uses identified hazards as network nodes and the correlation between hazards as the edges of the network. Based on the identified hazard data, the evolution network of reclamation risk in tailings ponds (ENRRTP) is constructed. By analyzing the statistical characteristics of ENRRTP, it can be found that ENRRTP has small world and scale-free characteristics. The above characteristics show that the reclamation risk of tailings ponds is coupled with multiple factors and the disaster path is short. Giving priority to those hub hazards that have a dominant impact on the reclamation risk can significantly reduce the reclamation risk of the tailings pond.

Keywords

• tailings
• reclamation risk
• hazard identification
• complex network
• hazard management