Toward a “Smart-Green” Future in Cities: System Dynamics Study of Megacities in China

Abstract

This study investigates the development trend of smart-green cities, focusing on seven megacities in China. It addresses three issues that are common in urban green development, including the relationship between “smart” and “green”, the scenario analysis of green development, and the uniqueness of megacities in green development. System dynamics modeling is applied. The simulation results reveal an “S”-shaped development curve for both aspects, indicating a gradual and accelerating growth pattern. Notably, the curve representing energy consumption lags behind the curve for smart city development by approximately three years. After 2030, when the smart city construction is expected to be completed, the proportion of the tertiary industry and investment in science and technology will play a significant role in limiting energy consumption. This study concludes by providing policy suggestions, including the need for long-term plans with phased targets, considering the specificity of megacities, and addressing external influences.

Keywords

• smart-green city
• system dynamics modeling
• trend forecasting
• megacities