Terrorism Risk Assessment for Historic Urban Open Areas

Abstract

Making cities resilient and secure remains a central goal in urban policy strategies, where established methods, technologies, and best experiences are applied or replicated when the knowledge of a threat is already well established. The scientific community and specialized bodies are invited to comprehend and evaluate disastrous events that are still not well explored to broaden the concept of resilient cities. Among these, terrorism in the European-built environment remains an underexplored topic, despite various studies assessing its economic, social, and political dimensions, exploring the radicalist matrix, or examining the post-effects of high-impact disastrous events. Within this framework, this work presents an algorithm for the risk assessment of historic urban open areas (uOAs) in Europe, combining theories of the terrorism phenomenon, the normative experiences, and the phenomenological results of violent acts in uOAs. Specifically, the algorithm is determined by studying physical qualities/properties and elements that usually feature the uOAs, using a limited set of descriptors. The descriptors and their formulation are set starting from their qualification, in compliance with the risk determinant (Hazard, Vulnerability, and Exposure), and discussed starting from participatory methods (Delphi and AHP). The algorithm is finally applied to Italian historic squares, testing the mathematical approach, verifying theories of the phenomenon, and setting up a comprehensive three-dimensional risk matrix for both soft and hard targets. This latest constitutes an operative tool to assess the investigated built environment exposed to terrorist threats aimed at developing more detailed mitigative strategies.

Keywords

• terrorism
• risk assessment
• historic built environment
• soft and hard targets
• matrix of risk
• Italian squares