Financial security of Ukraine under martial law: Impact of macroeconomic determinants

Abstract

Russia’s open aggression against Ukraine has resulted in significant changes across all sectors of the Ukrainian economy and its financial sphere, including financial security. The paper aims to identify the impact of the primary macroeconomic determinants, i.e., military defense spending, non-performing bank loans, exchange rate, foreign debt, and state (total) reserves, on the financial security of Ukraine under martial law. The canonical correlation analysis is employed to assess the strength of the relationship between the above macroeconomic indicators and the level of the state’s financial security. It was found that the reduction of the state’s financial security level in 2022 was 63.9%, explained exactly by the changes in the above macroeconomic determinants after the start of a full-scale invasion. The study determined the degree of influence of each indicator on Ukraine’s financial security level. An increase in the level of military defense spending, non-performing bank loans, hryvnia’s devaluation, and external debt growth had a direct negative impact on Ukraine’s financial security. At the same time, an upsurge in total reserves had an indirect negative impact (through the external debt growth). The research findings confirm the necessity for effective monitoring and management of the macroeconomic indicators to maintain both Ukraine’s financial security and macro-financial stability in order to ensure its’ sustainable economic development during the postwar recovery period. AcknowledgmentThis research is financially supported by the NATO SPS Program “Security of territorial communities: evidence from the Eastern European countries”.

Keywords

• defense spending
• macroeconomic determinants
• martial law
• public debt
• state financial security
• state reserves