Fertility variations in the recession context: the case of Greece

Abstract

Abstract Research on the counter- or pro-cyclical nature of aggregate fertility over economic cycles has been inconclusive, as results vary significantly across regions and over time. This work examines the variations in Greek birth rates, and confirms that fertility rates in Greece have declined since 2010. Partly as a response to economic uncertainty, childbearing decisions have been revised downward, although not uniformly across population groups. According to our analysis, almost 40,000 fewer babies were born in Greece between 2010 and 2015 than would have been born if pre-recession fertility rates had remained unchanged. Those missing births are mainly attributed to women under age 30, as well as to non-employed women of all ages. In terms of birth order, most of the missing births are second- or higher-order births. Even if a catch-up process occurs in the years to come, the foregone births are already visible as a cavity on the population pyramid.