Quantification of losses in agriculture production in eastern Ukraine due to the Russia-Ukraine war

Abstract

Abstract The ongoing war in Ukraine has seriously impacted the agricultural sector, yet its exact effects on agricultural production are not well understood. Here we combine satellite imagery, machine learning, and statistical regression approaches to present a spatially detailed assessment of agricultural losses for five high-risk provinces in eastern Ukraine (Crimea, Donets’k, Kherson, Luhans’k, and Zaporizhzhya). Our findings indicated that approximately 18.11 ± 2.47% of croplands were left unplanted following the war. Among the cultivated areas, wheat, sunflower, and rapeseed experienced average production losses of 36.39–37.19% in 2022 compared to pre-war levels during 2019–2021. Economically, the indirect losses resulting from decreased production, corresponding to $520.36 ± 22.52, $427.59 ± 24.62, and $205.02 ± 11.53 million USD for wheat, sunflower, and rapeseed crops, respectively, were 1.31–2.16 times higher than direct losses due to unplanted. We also found that reductions in crop production were primarily affected by war intensity indicated by changes in nighttime lights. This methodology offers a comprehensive framework for quantifying agricultural damages from wars, which can be applicable beyond the Russia-Ukraine context.