C-reactive protein serum levels as an early predictor of outcome in patients with pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus infection

Abstract

Abstract Background Data for predicting which patients with pandemic influenza A (H1N1) infection are likely to run a complicated course are sparse. We retrospectively studied whether the admission serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels can serve as a predictor of illness severity. Methods Included were all consecutive adult patients who presented to the emergency department (ED) between May-December, 2009 with a flu-like illness, a confirmed diagnosis of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) infection and a serum CRP level measured within 24 hours of presentation. Patients with a proven additional concurrent acute illness (e.g., bacteremia) were excluded. We used the ROC curve analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves and the Cox proportional hazard model to evaluate the predictive ability of CRP as a prognostic factor. Results Seventeen (9%) of the 191 enrolled patients were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), of whom eight (4%) required mechanical ventilation and three (2%) died. The median admission serum CRP levels were significantly higher among patients who required subsequent ICU care and mechanical ventilation than among patients who did not (123 mg/L and 112 mg/L vs. 40 mg/L, p p = .017, respectively). A Cox proportional hazard model identified admission serum CRP levels and auscultatory findings over the lungs as independent prognostic factors for ICU admission. Admission serum CRP levels were the only independent prognostic factor for mechanical ventilation. Thirty days after presenting to the ED, none of the patients with admission serum CRP level p p Conclusions In our study group, serum CRP levels obtained in the early ED admission stage from patients presenting with pandemic H1N1 influenza A infection were found to serve as a useful gauge for predicting disease course and assisting in patient management.