CT severity score in COVID-19 patients, assessment of performance in triage and outcome prediction: a comparative study of different methods

Abstract

Abstract Background Lung involvement in COVID-19 can be quantified by chest CT scan with some triage and prognostication value. Optimizing initial triage of patients could help decrease adverse health impacts of the disease through better clinical management. At least 6 CT severity score (CTSS) systems have been proposed. We aimed to evaluate triage and prognostication performance of seven different CTSSs, including one proposed by ourselves, in hospitalized COVID-19 patients diagnosed by positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Results After exclusion of 14 heart failure and significant preexisting pulmonary disease patients, 96 COVID-19, PCR-positive patients were included into our retrospective study, admitted from February 20, 2020, to July 22. Their mean age was 63.6 ± 17.4 years (range 21–88, median 67). Fifty-seven (59.4%) were men, and 39 (40.6%) were women. All CTSSs showed good interrater reliability as calculated intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) between two radiologists were 0.764–0.837. Those CTSSs with more numerous segmentations showed the best ICCs. As judged by area under curve (AUC) for each receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, only three CTSSs showed acceptable AUCs (AUC = 0.7) for triage of severe/critical patients. All CTSSs showed acceptable AUCs for prognostication (AUCs = 0.76–0.79). Calculated AUCs for different CTSSs were not significantly different for triage and for prediction of severe/critical disease, but some difference was shown for prediction of critical disease. Conclusions Men are probably affected more frequently than women by COVID-19. Quantification of lung disease in COVID-19 is a readily available and easy tool to be used in triage and prognostication, but we do not advocate its use in heart failure or chronic respiratory disease patients. The scoring systems with more numerous segmentations are recommended if any future imaging for comparison is contemplated. CTSS performance in triage was much lower than earlier reports, and only three CTSSs showed acceptable AUCs in this regard. CTSS performed better for prognostic purposes than for triage as all 7 CTSSs showed acceptable AUCs in both types of prognostic ROC curves. There is not much difference among performance of different CTSSs.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• CT quantification
• Triage
• Prognosis
• ROC curve
• Heart failure