The Use of Multiple Linear Regression Model for Predicting The Influence of Weather to The Prevalence of Newcastle Disease in Chicken in North Aceh

Abstract

The objective of this research is to see the influence of weather on the prevalence of Newcastle Disease (ND) in chicken in Kabupaten Aceh Utara (North Aceh). Data used in this research were obtained from Dinas Peternakan North Aceh for the number of chicken suffered ND and from Badan Meteorologi dan Geofisika Lhokseumawe, North Aceh for the form of weather. Multiple Linear Regression Model with five independent variables (the average of rainfall per month, the average of maximum temperature, the average of minimum temperature, the velocity of the wind, and the average of humidity per month) was used to see the influence of wheather to the prevalence of Newcastle Disease. Proportion the number of chicken suffered from ND which is the ratio of the number of chicken suffered from ND to the total number of chicken was used as dependent variables. The result shows that the best model is Ŷ= 120.529278 – 1.33 x wind humidity + 1.907 x wind velocity.

Keywords

• epidemiology
• newcastle disease
• multiple linear regression model