Methodology of financial needs planning with the use of retrospective data forecasting in terms of economic security

Abstract

Proper management plays a huge role in institutions with a hierarchical structure. Management is a set of activities aimed at achieving a specific goal in the following sequence: planning, organizing, motivating and controlling (Encyklopedia PWN, 2022). One of the types of planning conducted in the research subject is needs planning. The study outlines the research problem. The research problem is: What regularities are there in the time series of retrospective expenses in the finance department and to what extent will they allow the selection of the method and the forecasting of needs in the finance department for twenty-four future periods? The main goal of the work is to forecast the needs in the financial department for 2022-2023 in the subject of the research. For the purpose proposed in this way, the main hypothesis was out-lined: The application of the Holt-Winters method, the multiplicative model to forecast the needs in the financial department for 2022-2023 will allow the average absolute percentage error to be below 5%. The subject of research is one of the institutions operating in the territory of the European Union. The object of the research are expenses incurred and planned needs in the financial department in the subject of the research between 2017-2021. The research field of the work is the area where the research subject functions, and the research period is 2017-2023. The following research methods were used in the article: liter-ature analysis, forecasting with the Holt-Winters method (multiplicative model), inference and synthesis. The article focuses on needs planning in the finance department in the research subject for 2022-2023 with the use of the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method.

Keywords

• planning
• expenses
• needs
• forecasting
• economic security