The Impact Time Series Selected Characteristics on the Fuel Demand Forecasting Effectiveness Based on Autoregressive Models and Markov Chains

Abstract

This article examines the influence of specific time series attributes on the efficacy of fuel demand forecasting. By utilising autoregressive models and Markov chains, the research aims to determine the impact of these attributes on the effectiveness of specific models. The study also proposes modifications to these models to enhance their performance in the context of the fuel industry’s unique fuel distribution. The research involves a comprehensive analysis, including identifying the impact of volatility, seasonality, trends, and sudden shocks within time series data on the suitability and accuracy of forecasting methods. The paper utilises ARIMA, SARIMA, and Markov chain models to assess their ability to integrate diverse time series features, improve forecast precision, and facilitate strategic logistical planning. The findings suggest that recognising and leveraging these time series characteristics can significantly enhance the management of fuel supplies, leading to reduced operational costs and environmental impacts.

Keywords

• fuel demand forecasting
• Markov chains
• ARIMA model
• SARIMA model
• sustainable planning