Measles Population Immunity Profiles: Updated Methods and Tools

Abstract

Measles is a highly contagious disease and remains a major cause of child mortality worldwide. While measles vaccine is highly effective, high levels of population immunity are needed to prevent outbreaks. Simple but accurate tools are needed to estimate the profile of population measles immunity by age to identify and fill immunity gaps caused by low levels of vaccination coverage. The measles immunity profile estimates and visualizes the percentage of each birth cohort immune or susceptible to measles based on measles vaccination coverage. Several tools that employed this approach have been developed in the past, including informal unpublished versions. However, these tools used varying assumptions and produced inconsistent results. We updated the measles population immunity profile methodology to standardize and better document the assumptions and methods; provide timely estimates of measles population immunity; and facilitate prompt actions to close immunity gaps and prevent outbreaks. We recommend assuming that the second dose of the measles-containing vaccine (MCV2) and doses given during supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) first reach children who have been previously vaccinated against measles, so that previously unvaccinated children are reached only when the coverage of MCV2 or SIA is higher than the coverage achieved by all previous measles vaccination opportunities. This updated method provides a conservative estimate of immunization program impact to assess measles outbreak risk and to facilitate early planning of timely preventive SIAs to close population immunity gaps.

Keywords

• measles
• vaccination
• immunity
• risk assessment
• coverage
• mathematical model