Hottest summers the new normal

Abstract

With the rise in temperature due to anthropogenic climate change, the occurrence of hot summers, temperature extremes and heat waves is increasing globally. Projections for the coming decades to century indicate increases in the occurrence, magnitude and duration of these events. In a recent paper, Mueller et al (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044011 11 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044011 ) showed that half of summers are expected to be ‘hot’ (warmer than the warmest on record) across much of the world in one or two decades. While these results are consistent with earlier work, what is new here includes (i) an earlier timing of emergence of the hot summer signal and (ii) additional confidence due to the rigorous statistical examination of the observations and the analyses of the latest improved suite of model experiments. The potential impacts of these projections on society are extremely serious.

Keywords

• summer temperatures
• heat waves
• climate change
• detection and attribution
• impacts