Estimating the effect of inclisiran on hypercholesterolemia and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: the NHANES 1999–2018 study

Abstract

Abstract Background Hypercholesterolemia has been identified as an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Inclisiran, an innovative small interfering RNA agent, is anticipated to result in a notable reduction of approximately 50% in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. Given its transformative impact, this study scrutinized the eligibility of the US population for inclisiran treatment and evaluated its potential effects on hypercholesterolemia and the primary prevention of CVD. Methods This study applied the eligibility criteria from the ORION 10 and 11 trials to the 1999–2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) dataset to estimate the size of the eligible population for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and ASCVD-risk equivalents. Utilizing the reduction in LDL-C levels from ORION 10, this study predicted the impact of inclisiran on LDL-C levels among ASCVD patients. Similarly, leveraging the changes in lipid levels from ORION 11, this study predicted inclisiran’s effect on the 10-year change in CVD risk and preventable CVD events in the ASCVD-risk equivalents population, employing the Framingham CVD Risk Score. Results The study identified 579 ASCVD patients (5 million) and 382 ASCVD-risk equivalents (2.66 million) who met the eligibility criteria from ORION 10 and 11. Among the ASCVD population, 3.5 million (70.2%) would achieve a ≥ 50% reduction in LDL-C levels after treatment. Furthermore, 4.6 million (91.3%) would achieve LDL-C levels < 70 mg/dL, and 3.8 million (75%) would achieve LDL-C levels < 55 mg/dL after treatment. For the ASCVD-risk equivalents population, the estimated 10-year CVD risk would decrease from 25.3 to 17.7%, an absolute reduction of 7.6% and a relative reduction of 30% following inclisiran treatment, potentially preventing 202,353 CVD events over a decade, including 138,084 coronary heart disease cases, 37,351 strokes, and 23,894 congestive heart failure cases. Conclusions Inclisiran has the potential to substantially reduce the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia and prevent nearly 200,000 CVD events in eligible US adults.

Keywords

• Inclisiran
• Cardiovascular disease
• NHANES
• LDL-C
• Hypercholesterolemia