The influence of global and domestic uncertainty on electricity supply: A study of Swedish power sources

Abstract

Developing sustainable energy systems through system integration and sector coupling may involve permeating previous isolated and idiosyncratic reactions through the whole system. This study examines supply side dynamics of how uncertainty and spot prices influence electric power supply in an internationally connected electricity system. By applying quantile methods, the study reveals highly nonlinear and asymmetric responses in supplied electricity given a change in uncertainty or system spot prices. The findings show that while the total supply of electricity is largely unaffected by uncertainty and spot price, both supply level and changes in power supply for specific dispatchable power sources are influenced differently depending on the type of uncertainty (domestic or global). The findings also show that the response structure induced by uncertainty and spot price seems to be largely uniform and power source specific. This has implications for creating, amongst other things, integrated systems, and sector coupling, where there is a need for inexpensive excess power supply.

Keywords

• Electric power
• Uncertainty
• Quantile methods
• Sector coupling
• System integration