Improving Typhoon Muifa (2022) Forecasts with FY-3D and FY-3E MWHS-2 Satellite Data Assimilation under Clear Sky Conditions

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of assimilating the Microwave Humidity Sounder II (MWHS-2) radiance data carried on the FY-3D and FY-3E satellites on the analyses and forecasts of Typhoon Muifa in 2022 under clear-sky conditions. Data assimilation experiments are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Three-Dimensional Variational (3D-Var) Data Assimilation method to compare the different behaviors of FY-3D and FY-3E radiances. Additionally, the data assimilation strategies are assessed in terms of the sequence of applying the conventional and MWHS-2 radiance data. The results show that assimilating MWHS-2 data is able to enhance the dynamic and thermal structures of the typhoon system. The experiment with FY-3E MWHS-2 assimilated demonstrated superior performance in terms of simulating the typhoon’s structure and providing a prediction of the typhoon’s intensity and track than the experiment with FY-3D MWHS-2 did. The two-step assimilation strategy that assimilates conventional observations before the radiance data has improved the track and intensity forecasts at certain times, particularly with the FY-3E MWHS-2 radiance. It appears that large-scale atmospheric conditions are more refined by initially assimilating the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) data, with subsequent satellite data assimilation further adjusting the model state. This strategy has also confirmed improvements in precipitation prediction as it enhances the dynamic and thermal structures of the typhoon system.

Keywords

• MWHS-2 radiance
• data assimilation
• clear sky
• typhoon forecast