A Turing Test of the Plausibility of Model-Generated Urban Expansion Scenarios

Abstract

Scenarios of future urban expansion are expected to be plausible: they must be diverse to reflect future uncertainty, yet realistic in their depiction of urban expansion processes. We investigated the plausibility of scenarios derived from a novel data-driven simulation approach. In a Turing-like test, experts completed a quiz in which they were asked to identify the map showing true urban expansion amidst three model-generated scenarios. Across diverse expansion patterns, ranging from compact to dispersed, the experts had no significant ability to identify the true pattern. The results support the hypothesis that the investigated scenarios are plausible and hence that cluster analysis of estimated dynamic models is a viable method for producing scenarios of future urban expansion.