Sensitivity Analysis of Iran's Oil Export Revenues to Statements of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (1989-1999)

Abstract

In this study, the sensitivity of Iranian oil export revenue to the OPEC summit statements (increase, decrease, and stability of production level) was investigated and analyzed using the structural self-regression model (SVAR) in the form of a Quantile approach. For this purpose, the required data were collected in three quanta during the years 2019-1989: ($ 40>), ($ 70-40) and ($ 70<) on a monthly basis from the OPEC Secretariat and the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The results of the sensitivity analysis in the mentioned quantiles showed that with the increase of the oil price from the quantile ($ 40) to ($ 70-40) and ($ 70 <), the sensitivity of the Iranian oil export revenues to the oil price decreases. Also, in the quantiles studied, the most sensitivity of Iran's oil revenues has been seen first to the shock caused by the decrease statement, then to the shock caused by the increase statement, and finally, to the shock caused by the stability statement of the OPEC production level. In addition, with the rise in crude oil prices, the sensitivity of Iran's oil revenues to these statements is declining. According to the high economic dependency on oil export revenue and the sensitivity of these revenues to the OPEC statements, it is suggested to energy policymakers to implement the policies in order to increase producing high value-added oil products instead of selling crude oil

Keywords

• sensitivity analysis
• oil export revenues
• opec statements
• structural vehicle automation model
• quantile approach