Analysis of precipitation characteristics and changes of drought and flood disasters on Anhui Province between 1961 and 2020, based on time series

Abstract

The analysis of annual precipitation evolution characteristics is of great value and significance for revealing the spatial and temporal variation patterns of regional precipitation, water resources development and utilization, short-term climate, drought, flood disaster prediction, etc. The Mann-Kendall (MK) mutation test, cumulative distance level method, and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the precipitation evolution in Anhui Province from 1961 to 2020. The results showed that the average annual temperature and precipitation in Anhui Province showed a significant increasing trend during 1961–2020, with warming and humidification. 1994 was the year of abrupt climate change in Anhui Province, and the temperature after the abrupt change was 2.10 times that before the abrupt change. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a synchronized resonance cycle with droughts and floods in Anhui Province at 5.8 a. The annual scale of ENSO events is an important theoretical support for regional drought and flood warnings. The chance of drought and flooding in Anhui Province is greater than 50% in the year of ENSO event or two years after the event, and the year of ENSO event or the year after is prone to drought and flooding, so we should strengthen the flood and drought warning, disaster prevention and mitigation. HIGHLIGHTS Changes in precipitation characteristics and changes in droughts and floods were analyzed from the provincial scale.; Anhui Province tends to be warm and humid after the sudden change of temperature.; The frequency of droughts and floods increases after sudden changes in temperature.; Droughts and floods are one of the most frequent and serious meteorological disasters in Anhui Province.;

Keywords

• anhui
• climate change
• drought and floods
• precipitation characteristics analysis