Modeling the Occurrence of Global Financial Crises in the System of Financial Security of Countries

Abstract

The publication is aimed at developing and approbation of an economic-mathematical model for controlling the occurrence of global financial crises on the basis of the implementation of control points of the macro-economic indicators of financial crises. Based on a retrospective study of the history of global financial crises and an analysis of scientific sources, the main macro-economic indicators that can signal the development of financial crisis are allocated as follows: balance of payments; ratio of external debt to the country’s GDP; exchange rate volatility; ratio of the country’s international reserves to imports. An economic-mathematical model for controlling the occurrence of global financial crises by implementing the control points of macro-economic indicators of financial crises, which can become the basis of the formation of systems for early warning of global financial crises to ensure the financial security of countries, has been proposed. The model allows monitoring and calculation of the main assessment indicators, forming an information base for the development of managerial solutions to prevent the onset of financial crises or reduce negative consequences due to their early detection. The practical approbation of the proposed model was carried out on the example of developed countries and developing countries, which play a systematically important role in the world economy, as well as on the example of Ukraine. A matrix of compliance of the optimal values of the main macro-economic indicators of financial crises has been built and the most likely sources of a financial crisis have been identified.

Keywords

• global financial crises
• financial security
• control system
• control model
• macro-economic indicators