مهندسی عمران شریف (Feb 2021)
EVALUATION OF NEAR MISS SHIP COLLISION WITH CONSIDERATION OF NON-CONVENTIONAL VESSELS IN NORTHEAST OF QESHM ISLAND
Abstract
Ship collision is one of the most significant marine accidents that threatens the safety of vessels, especially in the straits, waterways, and coastal waters. Since it is quite difficult to assess ship collision based on previous statistics due to the lack of data, the near miss ship collision as an alternative was evaluated. Near miss ship collision refers to those vessels in an encounter course where collision would happen if no maneuver was performed or such a maneuver was not successful. In other words, even though there was no injury or damage in such incidents, a potential impact was still expected that could be transformed into an accident and cause damage or injury. Near miss ship collision for cargo ships or tankers can be assessed using the data obtained from Automated Identification System (AIS). However, there are a number of small vessels devoid of this system; in addition, due to the lack of available data, a few researchers have conducted studies on near miss collision of such vessels. To this end, this paper focused on the traffic simulation of Non-AIS vessels and proposed a model based on one of the methods of Monte Carlo Simulation called Slice sampling method and weighted summation method based on Newton's rules. Furthermore, to determine near miss collision, a model was established based on fuzzy ship domain theory. Finally, the number of near miss ship collision in two states was determined without and with considering the non-conventional vessels. The results showed that the consideration of Non-AIS vessels had a significant effect on the increase in the number of near miss ship collisions in the case study area, which is about 20\% for the situation with low conflict severity, 23\% for the situation with medium conflict severity, 15\% for the situation with high conflict severity, and 11\% for the situation with the highest conflict severity.
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