Assessing Variability and Trends of Rainfall and Temperature for the District of Musanze in Rwanda

Abstract

Variability in rainfall and temperature results in different impacts on agricultural practices. Assessesment of variability and trend of rainfall and temperature for the district of Musanze in Rwanda was conducted using six meteorological stations for a period of 37 years, ranging from 1981 to 2018, and data were obtained from Rwanda Meteorology Agency. Musanze district is located in highland areas of Rwanda, understanding the variability and trend in rainfall and temperature is paramount to increase the uptake of climate information and support strategic orientation. The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and modified Mann–Kendall were used to assess the trend in rainfall and temperature, whereas Sen’s slope estimator was used to assess the magnitude of change. The results from both methods showed much similarity and consistency. The assessment of variability and trend in rainfall and temperature in Musanza district indicated that increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall trends gave an indication of changes in variability and trend in rainfall and temperature. The annual pattern revealed a substantial downward tendency of −25.7% for Nyange, the only station with constant decreasing trend over all seasons, DJF, −61.4%, SON, −12.2%, JJA, −40.3%, and MAM, −4.35. Temperature analysis for both maximum and minimum indicated increasing trend which was signal for constant warming up in the area. The results from coefficient of variation indicated a high disparity in rainfall variation from June to August which ranged between 51 and 74%, and other seasons changes were moderate.