Challenges and opportunities for assessing global progress in reducing chemical accident risks

Abstract

This paper gives the current outlook on assessing progress in reducing chemical accident risk from a global perspective. At the moment, there are very limited data collected for assessing the status of chemical accident risk globally. There are some sources of data on chemical accidents in government and industry that might be used to estimate the frequency and severity of some types of events, but they fall far short of providing a complete perspective that covers all chemical accidents occurring in industry and commerce globally. The paper includes a discussion of existing and potential measures for assessing this risk using accident loss data. It also argues for evaluation methods that estimate the prevalence of certain risk factors, for example, using patterns of causality or indicators of the strength of risk governance. The heterogeneous nature of chemicals, the infinite ways in which chemical engineering transforms chemicals into products, and the vast infrastructure of road, pipelines, ships and railways, facilitating product distribution, are intrinsic to the challenge of assessing global chemical accident risk and predicting the next catastrophe. The paper describes the data that are currently available and their limitations for obtaining a picture of risk from chemical accidents worldwide. It describes the various obstacles to measurement of chemical accident risk situation across industries and geographic areas and identifies ways in which policy makers could overcome them over time. Keywords: Chemical accidents, Risk management, Disaster prevention and preparedness, Seveso directive, loss data