Counting 100 years: projection of the population of the blue area of Costa Rica for the years 2018 and 2050

Abstract

The population projections are an important tool to understand the population dynamics that a population group will have in a given time and provide an input for the design of public policies on aging. In the present article, a component projection method is used to visualize the behavior of the centenary population in the province of Guanacaste, Costa Rica. In first instance, the projection of this population is obtained for the year 2018. Then, the projection for the year 2050 is obtained in order to have a prospective vision of the structure of the future population. Among the main results there is a growth of the older adult population, in the group of 65 years and over, which is projected to increase from 32.684 habitants in 2018 to 92,988 in the year 2050. In particular, the centenary population will increase from 75 to 372 habitants, where the cantons of the so-called "Blue Zone" add up to just over half of the centenary population. At the same time, it shows an increase in life expectancy at birth, a decrease in the infant mortality rate and a decrease in the total fertility rate.