New Method of Randomized Forecasting Using Entropy-Robust Estimation: Application to the World Population Prediction

Abstract

We propose a new method of randomized forecasting (RF-method), which operates with models described by systems of linear ordinary differential equations with random parameters. The RF-method is based on entropy-robust estimation of the probability density functions (PDFs) of model parameters and measurement noises. The entropy-optimal estimator uses a limited amount of data. The method of randomized forecasting is applied to World population prediction. Ensembles of entropy-optimal prognostic trajectories of World population and their probability characteristics are generated. We show potential preferences of the proposed method in comparison with existing methods.

Keywords

• entropy
• randomized model
• randomized forecasting
• the exponential World population model