Short-term multi-energy consumption forecasting for integrated energy system based on interactive multi-scale convolutional module

Abstract

Abstract Accurate consumption forecasting is of great importance to grasp the energy consumption habits of consumers and promote the stable and efficient operation of integrated energy system (IES). To this end, this paper proposes an interactive multi-scale convolutional module-based short-term multi-energy consumption forecasting method for IES. Firstly, based on multi-scale feature fusion and multi-energy interactive learning, a novel interactive multi-scale convolutional module is proposed to extract and share the coupling information between energy consumption from different scales without increasing network parameters. Then, a short-term multi-energy consumption forecasting method is proposed, where different forecasting network structures are selected in different seasons to make full use of seasonal and coupling characteristics of the energy consumption, thus enhancing prediction performance. Furthermore, a Laplace distribution-based loss function weight optimization method is proposed to dynamically balance the loss magnitude and training speed of joint forecast tasks more robustly. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method are verified by comparative simulation experiments.

Keywords

• Integrated energy system
• Multi-scale feature fusion
• Multi-energy interactive learning
• Seasonal and coupling characteristics
• Consumption forecasting