Climate Predictions Accelerate Decline for Threatened Macrozamia Cycads from Queensland, Australia

Abstract

Changes in the potential habitat of five allopatric species of threatened Macrozamia cycads under scenarios of increased ambient temperature were examined. A lack of seed dispersal, poor recruitment, low seedling survival, obligate pollinator mutualisms and continued habitat loss have led to extant populations being largely restricted to refugia. Models predict that the area of suitable habitat will further contract and move upslope, resulting in a reduced incidence within protected areas with increasing annual mean temperature. Areas of potential habitat for all five species are also predicted to become increasingly isolated from one another, further reducing the exchange between metapopulations and subpopulations, exacerbating existing threatening processes.

Keywords

• climate change
• conservation planning
• cycads
• distribution
• Macrozamia
• Maxent
• Queensland, Australia
• threatened species