Growth and instability in area, production and productivity of major spices in Bangladesh

Abstract

The present study was conducted to analyze the trend in growth and instability of major spices in Bangladesh for the last 58 years from 1961-70 to 2011-18. A Semi-log regression model was used to assess the growth and trend of major spices (onion, garlic, chili, and ginger), while auto-correlation problems were solved using the Prais-Winsten transformation. An instability analysis was performed by generating the Cuddy Della instability index. The study observed that all the spices had a positive but low growth rate in area and production, where the highest values were only 3.04% and 3.97% per annum, respectively, for onion. Even the productivity of the spices was below 1% except for chili. Therefore, every year, the country has to import large amounts of spices from abroad to meet the demand of its population. Moreover, most spices were found instable in terms of area, production and productivity over time. Therefore, proper policies should be formulated to make the country self-sufficient in the spice sector than resort to imports by reducing instability and increasing the production of spices.

Keywords

• Spices
• Growth rates
• Semi-log regression model
• Prais-winsten transformation
• Cuddy della instability index