The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the growth rate of new COVID-19 cases: evidence from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

This research aims to shed light on the appropriate measures countries should take when battling a pandemic. It explores the effectiveness of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (also known as quarantine restrictions) on the reduction of the spread of COVID-19 using Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in a natural experiment. All types of non-pharmaceutical interventions are effective at reducing the spread of the virus. Comparing the results for the two countries, it appears that in the summer 2020, the partial lockdown in Kyrgyzstan was just as effective as the full-lockdown in Kazakhstan at reducing the growth rate of new cases. Further, and interesting enough, the decrease was not immediate but gradual as it reduced the growth rate at roughly .3 percentage points per day for each country. Therefore, policymakers should not expect immediate results in the reduction of the number of new cases after imposing restrictions. It is only when the growth rate of new cases turns negative that new cases begin to fall. This might take a few weeks.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• non-pharmaceutical intervention
• epidemic growth rate
• public health policy
• regression analysis