علوم و مهندسی آب و فاضلاب (Oct 2022)
Developing a Model of Estimating the Failure Rate for Main Urban Water Pipes Using Gene Expression Programming
Abstract
One of the major problems with urban water supply networks is the large volume of water wastage due to various incidents that cause damage. These damages are mainly irreversible and costly; thus, it is increasingly important to understand the causes of such incidents to prevent and reduce water wastage. This research aims to estimate the failure rate of main urban water supply pipes. In terms of nature, this research is applied, while in terms of administration, it is a combination of descriptive-analytical methods based on library sources. In addition to interviewing experts in the study area, the research uses findings of other research and data provided by Tehran’s Water and Wastewater Organization, which pertain to District 1. The research identifies major criteria affecting failure rates of main pipes of various types. Then, it uses Gene Expression Programming (GEP) software to perform computations and provide the model. Findings conclude that as the working pressure, age, and length of the pipe and the number of service lines increase, the number of incidents increases also. On the other hand, with the increase in the diameter of the pipes and the depth at which they are installed, their failure rates decrease. The type of soil also buried directly impacts the gradual loss of the pipes. Because the proposed models in this research have no limited input parameters and take into account all the effective components, they are highly useful and reliable tools to predict failure rates of the main urban water supply pipes.
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